I know I’ve said it before, but what a test of the human body the Tour de France is.
I don’t really care if you aren’t that interested in the bike race, I am. Regardless of whether or not an Aussie was in a great position to win the whole thing, I’d still be up late every night catching all the action.
So here’s where we stand after Stage 16 of this amazing race.
Team CSC and Frank Schleck hold onto just a few precious seconds and the yellow jersey and by all accounts, this is a well deserved lead at this stage.
Team CSC has easilly been the most dominant of the tour this year and they continue to get stronger. The pace dished out by nearly all the team members has been too much for the main field and day after day they isolate their main rivals on the big climbs.
Although the whole team has put in an amazing effort, special mention goes to the German Jens Voigt, who has been nothing short of a machine this tour. His relentless pace making at the front has broken so many pre race favourites it’s not funny and all this in absolute sacrifice for his more fancied team mates, Frank Schleck and Carlos Sastre.
So why doesn’t Jens Voigt just win the whole thing if he’s that good? Great question. Though in cycling, it’s a team sport and you can rarely win team sports without great team mates willing to sacrifice themselves. Voigt is that great team mate.
As an Aussie, I’ve had plenty to cheer about this tour as well.
Firstly, the amazing ride by Simon Gerrans to win stage 15 with a mountain top finish when he looked all but gone with a few kilometres to go. What a ride.
Most importantly, Cadel Evans’ chances of winning this thing are very very real indeed. No matter how good team CSC is, I thought that if they were going to attack Evans, it should have been last night over the highest mountain pass road in Europe. They could not. Evans marked them superbly.
Better still, Evans headed the charge on the descent and even managed to drop Menchov off the back and gain a valuable 30 seconds or so on who would seem to me to be Evans biggest rival in the time trial coming up in a few days.
But looking forward to tonights stage, arguably the most famous finish in the Tour de France, L’Alpe-d’Huez. This is an unbelievable finish, stright up the side of a mountain with countless switchbacks and a gradient any cyclist would tremble at the prospect of.
What makes this a truly amazing stage though, is the fact that the riders have to go over two “beyond category” climbs to even get to the base of the last climb! For the riders, sheer pain. For us fans, sheer excitement.
So going into this stage, a few things are clear. If a CSC rider is to win, they need at least a couple of minutes on Cadel Evans. If Menchov is to win, he will need at least a minute and a half to two minutes. If Kohl is to win, he needs maybe 3 to 5 minutes.
All possible scenarios. Though the prospect of shaking Cadel Evans off their back wheel and gaining this sort of time is slim at best I think.
If his opponents are indeed to gain this time, they need to firstly isolate Evans on the second climb of the day. Possible, however Evans’ number one team mate Popovytch seems to have ridden into some form with a great result last night, finishing with the winner.
Then they need to either drop Evans early, or get him to crack. If he gets dropped early, they may be able to grind out a time gap. If Evans cracks, even within 3 or so kms from the top, it’s not unlikely they could grab a few minutes off him even in that short space.
Bottom line, Evans just needs to mark the wheels of Schleck, Sastre, Menchov and Kohl. If he does that, the time trial will most likely decide he is the winner in Paris as he is definately superior in the solo ride against the clock.
Do CSC have the amunition to keep firing?
Is Evans colar bone ok after his early crash?
Does Menchov have the legs for a big attack?
Is Kohl capable of stealing the tour from all of them?
All I can say is bring it on! Go Cadel!